Manchester United Faces Uphill Battle for Top Four After Slow Start

Manchester United enters the international break in the bottom half of the Premier League table, sitting five points above the relegation zone and ten points from the top. With just eight points after seven matches, this marks the club’s lowest tally at this stage of the season. They are already six points behind fourth-placed Chelsea, prompting discussions about manager Erik ten Hag’s future at an upcoming board meeting.

Historically, only twice have teams with eight points or fewer after seven games qualified for the Champions League. In the 2011-12 season, Arsenal then in 15th place with seven points, finished third with 70 points. Similarly, Newcastle managed to climb from eight points to fourth place last season, finishing with 71 points. However, statisticians predict only a 2% chance of United achieving a top-four finish this season.

Additionally, there is speculation about whether finishing fifth could secure an extra Champions League spot as was seen last season when clubs from Italy and Germany benefited more than England. United could also secure a Champions League berth by winning the Europa League but they have yet to win in this season’s competition, drawing their opening match against FC Twente. Their next European fixture is on October 24 against Fenerbahce.

Ten Hag’s tenure has seen United achieve strong runs including a nine-match winning streak in all competitions from November 2022 to January 2023. However, failing to qualify for the Champions League would have significant financial repercussions including a £10 million reduction in their deal with Adidas and a potential £12 million loss in prize money.

Historically, Manchester United has not faced such a drought of Champions League participation having competed in it seven times and the Europa League six times since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement in 2013.